Ordinarily one and done is a considered a rare accomplishment (see Ball, Lonzo). But if you’re the POTUS, not so much.
As Kate McKinnon characterized it on SNL last weekend in her portrayal of Robert Mueller, “They didn’t leave us breadcrumbs. They left us whole loaves.”
Here’s a link to the timeline that makes obstruction impossible to defend from a legal standpoint. The end is nigh.
The short summary is, the Hastert Rule:
The Hastert Rule, also known as the “majority of the majority” rule, is an informal governing principle used in the United States by Republican Speakers of the House of Representatives since the mid-1990s to maintain their speakerships and limit the power of the minority party to bring bills up for a vote on the floor of the House. Under the doctrine, the Speaker will not allow a floor vote on a bill unless a majority of the majority party supports the bill
Paul Ryan has a bit of a dilemma on his hands right now. In order for him to resolve the #Trumpshutdown, he’ll need to break that Hastert rule. Something he is loath to do.
With support for a short-term resolution for DACA recipients near 85%, getting a majority of The House to pass protection for DACA workers is simple math. The problem for Ryan is, it would almost certainly have to break the Hastert rule. It would be fairly simple to appease House democrats and persuade a handful of Republican congressmen on a solution to DACA, but the Freedom Caucus would start experiencing convulsions before the vote even hits the floor. Oddly enough, about the only one who recognizes this at the moment is Lindsey Graham. His odds of convincing his peers towards accepting a yes vote and moving on are slim to non-existent.
However if Ryan sticks to the Hastert rule, he’s also screwed because the House is currently filled with ultra conservative wing-nuts. Any legislation they deem acceptable couldn’t possibly assemble 60 votes in the Senate. This even discounts the Stephen Miller effect, who Graham is currently grousing about.
Meanwhile, president Bone Spur is advocating what Mitch McConnell knows to be political suicide – The Nuclear Option. Donald Trump on Twitter:
Great to see how hard Republicans are fighting for our Military and Safety at the Border. The Dems just want illegal immigrants to pour into our nation unchecked. If stalemate continues, Republicans should go to 51% (Nuclear Option) and vote on real, long-term budget, no C.R.’s!
No way does Mitch McConnell want to go down the nuclear path with the mid-terms just 10 months away. If he changes the rules, the republicans get the benefit for 10 months but if they manage to lose the Senate — which is a real possibility — he just handed over all the power to democrats who will only need 51 votes to pass legislation on anything, indefinitely. Based on his own words, I do not see him complying with Trump’s wishes. The only benefit would be a short-term one for Trump and McConnell is too smart to take the bait that.
I do not see an easy way out of this one. Nobody likes egg on their face but someone is going to end up with a face plastered with yokes. Gosh darn-it it’s hard to actually govern.
Gosh it was nice to see senators Collins and Murkowski at work today praising just how hard everyone there was working towards a resolution to the government shut-down. They just seemed so…. optimistic!
And knowing how honorable the Republicans are at keeping their word, I’m sure the talks would have happened anyway, even if Chuck Schumer hadn’t forced the issue.
I have never seem a party transition from obstinate to Kum Ba Yah in such a short period of time. Miraculous, isn’t it?
I would like to submit these images for the benefit of my Fox viewing friends who may have missed the news. Without comment.
Immediately following the 2016 election, CNN’s Van Jones traveled to rural Ohio to meet with and interview a family that switched from Obama voters in 2012, to Trump in 2016. His goal was sincere. “I really want to know what the hell happened.”
On the trip out there, the camera crew captured images of rusted out factories that not long ago provided living wage jobs to thriving communities.
The crux of the interview was that this particular family believed Donald Trump’s promise to return jobs to those factories, coupled with not being big fans of Hillary, they decided to switch. Not uncommon in rural America, a total pocketbook decision.
Trump is less vocal about the Carrier deal these days as layoffs outnumber jobs promised.
The irony here is that Trump’s base consists of generally white, blue collar workers whose livelihood depends on living wage jobs. A recent article by the Brookings Institute asserts that while indeed the economy is adding jobs, the vast majority of them are going to college educated individuals.
The number of Americans with high school degrees or less who are employed, in this 9th year of economic expansion, has fallen by 2,995,000.
I find it odd that virtually everyone is voting against their own economic interests. The college educated demographic voted overwhelmingly for Hillary.
In any case, I’m sorry to inform the Trump voters out there, those factories are just as rusty as ever. The real threat to job loss isn’t immigrants or bad trade deals. It’s automation.
The yoke’s on you.
President Bone Spur seems to be fairly indifferent to optics. Witness his unending golf trips at his private clubs.
I can only imagine Mitch McConnell this morning, munching on his poached egg and toast, wondering if Trump is going to provide commercials for every democratic candidate tonight by prancing around Mar-a-Lago to a $100,000 a plate affair celebrating a year in office.
Regarding DACA: I cancel it, you fix it.
I’m not fond of working weekends either, Mitch. It kinda sucks. But you have to play the hand you’re dealt.
The U.S. government is going to shut down in an hour and 5 minutes.
While I hate to see the inconvenience this will impose on hundreds of thousands of federal workers and contractors, I applaud Chuck Schumer for taking a principled stand. The republicans have worked themselves into a corner where they have absolutely no credibility with respect to a promissory note to fix important issues later. Schumer and the democrats recognized that it’s now or never.
With the ensuing chaos that will start tomorrow morning where Dick Mulveyney will need to decide what stays open and what closes, there exists a clear inconvenience to republicans to come to the table and negotiate. Trump might have to postpone a golf game or two. The party celebrating the one year anniversary of his inauguration is in jeopardy. It’ll be interesting to see if he holds it. It would be incredibly bad optics.
Schumer played this poker hand pretty well this time. Basically called republicans’ bluff that Dems would take the heat for a shut-down. On the contrary.
If he’s able to negotiate a deal for the Dreamers and get funding for CHIP, he’ll have accomplished two things. One, his principled stand will get looked at as what resolved the Dreamers issue. Two, he will have established credibility that democrats are willing to call McConnell’s bluff if they feel like public opinion is on their side. These are two very important accomplishments that need to happen in order to fix the ‘tude problem on the other side of the aisle.
I’m reminded of a funny story I was told by local musician, producer, singer, songwriter Jim Walker a few years ago. One day we got off on the topic of people who, with no talent of their own, like to sit there and launch criticisms of bands and how they suck or whatever.
So as the story goes, Jim and a friend were at a bar watching a local band and there happened to be an obnoxious guy standing behind him who kept making rude comments about the band and how they sucked. You can only ignore someone like that for so long. Evidently Jim’s friend had had enough of this guy, turned around and asked him “Where’s your song, man?” I guess he got a lot more quiet after that.
I’m reminded of this humorous episode as I watch Republican infighting over the DACA solution. It’s humorous for a couple of reasons. First, Lindsay Graham tries to be Trump’s buddy and get into his inner circle by going golfing with him and flattering him afterwards. Then he makes what I would say is a good faith effort to work with democratic senator Dick Durbin on a bipartisan solution to DACA. Does the President want to hear about it? Sure, c’mon over.
To his surprise, Trump had invited a few of his hardliners to the meeting as well. Graham’s idea got shot down by Cotton and Perdue who have no intention of working in a bipartisan fashion with any democrat, even though 80% of U.S. citizens want to see a solution for Dreamers. So Graham is out there strumming his tune, laying out his proposal and Trump gets indignant about it complete with shithole comments.
But as bad and racist as that was, that’s not the point here. The point is, okay, you don’t like my plan. Where’s yours?
So, Senators Cotton and Perdue. Where’s your song, man?
Yesterday a Chinese credit rating agency downgraded the U.S. credit rating over “political deficiencies”.
It’s worth noting that this occurred prior to any government shutdown. A shutdown will of course further reduce the U.S. credit rating and likely have an immediate impact on interest rates.
I believe this is a case where the minority party actually has a better poker hand than the majority. 80% of Americans want the DACA issue settled. The question then becomes “who looks worse if the Dems take a stand on Dreamers and government shuts down?”
I think Republicans will take the hit.
The question is then, do Democrats have the cajones to risk public opinion on a shutdown? I’m not convinced they do. However, it would be a historic stand and the right thing to do. 3 days to find out. My money is on kick the can down the road on a short term resolution.
It’s hard to decide some days in which form to participate in the #resistance. For the most part, with Facebook and Twitter we’re preaching to the choir without having any real impact.
After some consideration, I feel like getting involved with voter registration efforts is probably the best use of time. My help isn’t needed in Portland though. I’ve seriously considered a trip to Wisconsin to support Randy Bryce because Paul Ryan must be defeated. But I have equal disdain for Kevin McCarthy, Ted Cruz, Chuck Grassley and Tom Cotton so it’s a tough call.
Focusing on house races is more important than Senate races. It’s unlikely the math is there for a takeover of the upper chamber.
Recently I came across an innovative idea from a guy I follow on Twitter, Claude Taylor. He’s buying up billboard space to “oppose all the Trump boot lickers.”
It’s an official PAC and they are starting the roll out any day now. The first one will be in Florida off if I-75, It’s also worth noting, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri won the Golden Globe for best picture.
I like the idea so much I sent the PAC some money. The combination of voter registration and public shaming sounds like the ticket.
