War: Mandatory Draft and Pay-go

Conservatives tend to rally around war mongering without requiring the slightest bit of justification.  There were no WMDs after all in Iraq.  Qasam Soleimani was assassinated because as rumor has it, he was planning to plot against us.  No evidence of these assumptions ever seems to be required.  Cost, both human and financial, be damned.

When the Iraq war was waged by George W. Bush in 2003, cable viewers could watch bombs explode on targets on CNN every day.  I think most people thought it was a really cool display of our technology.  Entertainment even.  Lets gather around and watch some more brown people die.   It’s 6,000 miles away and looks like a well designed video game on TV.

This is where the problem lies now.  It’s easy to be entertained by war when it’s other people’s children doing the dying.  It’s also easy to be entertained by war when it seemingly doesn’t cost us anything.   Free entertainment.  And we alway seem to win.  What a cool country we live in.

To the average American, a real test of whether or not it’s cool would be if everyone had an equal chance of participating in the war games.  Hmm, hold on a minute.  I just like to watch.  That’s what I thought.

This is why I’m thinking the only solution that will force people to get real about whether or not they really support a movement towards war, is if we reverted back to the mandator draft.  I believe it would nip this kind of thinking in the bud. Oh it’s my kid who might have to be on the front line?  Wait just a minute now.

Another test would be if we had to use pay-go for the war costs.  If everyone’s tax bill went up $5,000 / year to pay for the ongoing war, can you imagine the push-back?  Well, I think we should do it but I’m not going to be the one paying for it.  Indeed.  You don’t have to worry about that because it’s on the credit card.  You’ll be dead when the bill comes due, but your kids won’t be too happy.

Lloyd Bentsen, in the 1988 Vice Presidential debate said it best.

You know, if you let me write $200 billion worth of hot checks every year, I could give you an illusion of prosperity, too.

 

 

 

 

Some thoughts on homelessness

I was struck by a thread of conversation nextdoor.com titled “Homeless people in LO.”  The author had really good intentions and was asking for compassion and understanding towards the homeless.  Reading the author’s bio I wasn’t sure if the post was a troll or not.  After-all, wouldn’t it be somewhat predictable to expect the people of this relatively affluent burb to vigorously attack behaviors that might attract more homeless people to the confines of Lake Oswego?  What better way to get under their skin than to start a thread on how we can engage in behaviors that would result in more homeless people in the city with its own private lake.

homeless-1

As I read through the comment section I was very pleased to learn that Lake Oswego residents have opinions on both sides of this issue.  It wouldn’t be fair to stereotype an entire community as stodgy old rich people who don’t give a hoot about the poor.  There were some heartless souls chiming in, but just as many people who understood this is a complex issue, thankfully.

Several root causes were asserted in this thread.  Mental illness, drug addiction, the cost of housing, lack of morals.  All factors to be sure.  That’s why it’s a complex issue that can’t be solved by simply saying “Don’t tread on me, move your tent to someone else’s burb!”

I don’t think it’s a surprise to anyone that the homelessness issue is getting worse.  As of 2017 about 2% of Portland’s population was homeless, or about 38,000 people.  It’s real and all it takes is a check on our senses of sight and smell to understand we need to collectively do something.  We aren’t going to wish this problem away.

Everyone wants clean cities that they can be proud of that they can show off to out-of -towners.  I read an article not long ago of a guy who had fond memories of riding the Springwater trail during his time in Portland, but then got married and moved to Bend.  When his kids got to be bike riding age he tried to take the family back to Portland to experience the Springwater trail for themselves and it was quite simply, not a place you would ever want to take your family.

I don’t claim to be a subject matter expert on homelessness, but I’ll share my take on it because I think it’s a perspective worth considering.

My main point is, the problem isn’t going to be resolved for free.  I don’t have the statistics in front of me but I have a sister who worked as a mental health nursing supervisor and I recall her telling me back in the 1980’s about how the drastic funding cuts to mental healthcare were going to result in what we are seeing today.  Often times there simply isn’t any place for the mentally ill to go.

Everyone wants lower taxes including me.  I sometimes wonder what they do with all that money they collect every year off my property taxes.  How the government spends the money they collect is a valid issue, but in my opinion should be treated separately from addressing the crisis of homelessness now.

The problem is we want it both ways.  We want beautiful, clean cities we can be proud of but we don’t want to provide funds to adequately take care of the mentally ill among us.  In retrospect it was very naive to think that we’d be able to cut those funds with no consequences.

The second point I want to make is, this is a problem that belongs in the hands of professionals.  It’s incredibly naive to think the Portland police or you and I can do anything about this issue.  I remember standing at a bus stop on Naito a couple of years ago and witnessed first hand a mentally ill person yielding a sword out in the middle of traffic.  I was concerned for his safety so I called the Police.  I didn’t have high expectations for what could be done, but my suspicions were confirmed when the officer told me “We get 20 calls like this a day.  We can’t commit to coming out to each one, we just don’t have the resources.”  They can’t lock them all up unless they are a threat to others.  Since the guy was just waving his sword around randomly and not at anyone, they couldn’t come.  Okay man, I’ll call ‘ya back when he starts waving it at me.

The good news is this is sort of a self correcting problem.  We already have businesses that are choosing not to locate downtown because of the homeless issue.  They simply don’t want to subject their workers to the ugliness that comes with having to wade through camps of homeless people to get to the food cart to grab a bite.

When the problem gets bad enough and enough businesses leave the city, tents and blue tarp start showing up in Dunthorpe, all of our house values decline and Portland loses its luster as a destination city… in other words, when it starts to cost real money, something will be done.  That’s when the voters will approve a ballot measure that adequately funds the mentally ill.

With the advantages afforded me, I personally was born on at least 2nd base.  I try to remember that because I can easily envision scenarios where most of us are all one or two bad breaks away from setting up camp.

 

 

2019 – No yawning allowed

It’s late December so it must be time for the annual humble-brag.  My followers here at pdx-i.net insisted.  Both of them.

One thing 2019 was not was boring.  It felt full-throttle from start to finish.   We managed several home improvement projects inside and out from a new fence, 2 sheds, painted almost every room inside, painted the exterior, several significant landscaping changes, and a garage remodel.  So many contractors were in and out it felt like visiting Jackie and Rich’s house.   What were we thinking?  I think it was “let’s get this over with so we can enjoy the place.”  Thankfully things have settled down in large part because we blew through the budget and literally have just enough money left over to buy a couple of Americanos.

May and June were also not boring.  We welcomed Emilia Susanne Toner (Millie) and Gwendolyn Lucille Toner (Gwennie) into the world about 6 weeks apart.  I’m at a loss for words for how grateful we are that we added 2 new grandchildren who are healthy, happy and well cared for.  The pictures tell the story.   Their cousins Kaden and Karter keep the family entertained with their observations about school, sports, and life in general.  High marks for being very nice young gentleman.

August was not boring.  Donna turned 60 and we threw a backyard party for friends, family, and neighbors.  Seymour and Smith brought the good times along with the classic rock.  We got several compliments about how awesome the music was, but the main thing was the good vibe and Donna got to share her special day with many of you.

Also in August Donna and I met up with my cousin Jim in San Francisco to see the Giants and toured the city over a long weekend.  Then off on a train ride to Seattle to see the Mariners as well as attend the annual family reunion at Lake Margaret.

Sadly, the cycle of life took our beloved Verda Ann Toner from us this year.  She was a special lady and an extremely talented bridge player.  We miss you, Verda.

In spite of some challenging kidney stone episodes in the Spring, Donna continues to not have a middle gear.  It’s either full bore or plop.  No rest for the weary.  She’s still in the heat of the battle at Cambia, and rolls up her sleeves and kicks butt inside and out when she gets home.  She’s loving the new yard.  I’m not sure the neighbors are so sure because of all the shrubs that got taken out and my constant trailer loads to S&H logging, but she’s got the vision and a plan.  Give it 3 years, it will be stunning.  Now that we have our arms around the situation a little better with the house and yard, I fully expect some serious activity in the watercolor area plus her metal shop downstairs.

I managed to remain employed throughout the year, but I switched jobs twice.  At the tail end of my career, I’ve come to the realization that I don’t like to be bossed around.  It’s my new requirement.  Don’t boss me around and we’ll be fine.   I’m currently contracting with Venmo based out of San Francisco, but most of my peers are in New York City.  They are all very young and super smart and I’m, …  a contractor.

When I’m not working I try to sneak in guitar lessons, record music and play fantasy baseball.  With some success the past couple of years I might humble-brag.  Can you say back-to-back championships for the Cogswell Cogs?

Now and again I drop new tunes on my youtube channel.  I’m not exactly sure why.  I think I have the same two followers there.

Pickles loves her back yard and the critters out there.  She likes to pick them up and give them a fling.  She’s slowing down a bit which is good because I don’t think I could find her if she wandered off into the woods.

Donna and I are counting down to retirement, currently shooting for May of 2021.  We could retire now if we wanted to but we’d have to live in the car and Donna doesn’t want to.  We love the new (old) home, really enjoy living by the college and frequently take in activities over there.

We are both doing less Facebook and more Twitter.  We’re not sure why because it raises our blood pressure.

Another thing that raises my blood pressure (but in a good way) is the Oregon Ducks.  Bring on Wisconson.  Why, we should be able to beat them.  They don’t even know how to vote!

We hope this missive finds you in good health and surrounded by people that love you.

 

 

Tax the Megachurches

Paula White and Jerry Falwell Jr. are great examples of why candidate endorsing churches should be taxed. These are mini cults preying on the weak, violating separation of church and state.

I have no issue with issue endorsing, but candidate endorsing crosses the line.

The Benghazi Strategy

Anyone remember Benghazi? Republicans held 33 hearings on the attack on Benghazi and came up empty handed.

Republicans made no secret of the fact that the Benghazi hearings if nothing else, would put a stain on Hillary Clinton’s white house bid. The real purpose of the hearings was even confirmed publibly by republican leadership at the time. And it didn’t stop there either as republicans were only too happy to be faux outraged over the handling of classified information and Hillary’s e-mail server.

Vanity Fair published an article in May that the democratic strategy is to “Benghazi” Trump. That is to say, hold high profile hearings in long succession to uncover dirty laundry for the world to see.

It’s working.

Democrats would be only too happy to compare laundry baskets with the Trump administration. Game on.

There is going to be a lively debate about what constitutes an impeachable offense and what does not. In the meantime, week after week of hearings exposing just how corrupt this administration is promises to be an entertaining reminder that what goes around comes around.

The Benghazi-ing of Trump brings with it more risk to the entire republican party however. Democrats may lose the impeachment battle, but they are playing the long game here. If senate seats go blue in the fallout, dems ultimately win this game. The plan appears to be to not only expose Trump’s dirty underwear, but to publicly humiliate every republican senator who claims the stains on the underwear are due to shadows from faulty lighting when the images in exhibit A were taken.

Sucks to be held accountable.

Mayor Pete

It’s probably way too early to be speculating on anything to do with the democratic primaries.  At this point all we have is the media’s rankings which is mostly based on fund raising success or lack thereof.

Not long ago I was leaning hard towards Kamala Harris.  The original reasons that attracted me to her candidacy still exist.  She’s smart.  She’s tough.  She’s kind and very likable, and perhaps best of all, she’s not at risk of being an octogenarian during her first term.  Sure, go ahead and accuse me of agism.  See if I care.  I really don’t at this point.

As time goes on, the more I see of Mayor Pete, the more I like the idea of his candidacy.  Here are my reasons.

  • He’s incredibly intelligent and articulate
  • He’s a veteran so he comes with creds on foreign policy to some extent.  He’s served his country honorably.
  • He’s from Indiana, so he cannot be viewed as a “coastal elite” which is the ball and chain that I think Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris would have to shake off with the midwest voters.
  • On healthcare he’s a realist for the public options vs. medicare for all.  There are a lot of people who would be extremely upset if they had to give up their employer paid healthcare.
  • He’s young

At this point I can’t get excited about Sanders, Warren, or Biden.  I would support them in a heartbeat over any republican of course but Pete Buttigeig would be a complete breath of fresh air into our political system.  The voter turnout for young people would be off the charts.  After all, it’s going to be their country 20 years from now, no?  Someone from their generation should be guiding the direction of it.   Especially now with critical climate decisions in the equation.

I only mention this because I like the idea of being an early adopter.  It’s kind of like investing.  Everyone knows Amazon is a great stock now, but the ones who bought at $50/share are the visionaries.

Count me in the Pete Buttigeig camp fairly early.   The chance that he gets the nomination are probably pretty slim, but not if people keep an open mind.

That’s what did the democrats in the last time.  Wasserman-Shultz declared Clinton the heir to the thrown before the primaries even got off the ground.  Let’s hope that doesn’t happen this time.

 

 

Who cares?

Chuck Todd had a political analyst from Iowa on Meet The Press last Sunday. To be sure there were some interesting stats about what the people from the great state of Iowa were concerned about. My question is: Who gives a shit what Iowans think? It’s 6 bloody electoral votes. Iowa isn’t the “pulse” of the American heartland. It’s a small state out in the middle of nowhere with a bunch of farms and a few universities.

What other conclusion is there?

I’d like to believe that we live in a county where “diversity of opinions” is a good thing.  I really would like to believe that.  But I cannot.

With the onset of the Great Recession we saw the origins of the Tea Party movement, ostensibly a group of conservatives who were very concerned about our national debt, the budget deficit and government spending.  They were successful at handcuffing then speaker Paul Ryan from negotiating any progress with progressives in the house.  With a republican majority and speaker, it was all but guaranteed nothing would get done.  Week after week they would appear on the Sunday News shows and express their outrage over government spending!

The problem for the Tea Party now is that they appear to have selective outrage.  When a republican holds the White House, subsidies for farmers is suddenly okay.  The vote for massive tax cuts for the wealthy on the promise that they will pay for themselves with a booming economy.

The problem is twofold.  1)  The promise of the tax cuts paying for themselves was a lie and they knew it, and 2) Republicans suck at math.

Debt and deficits have grown at worse rates under republican leadership since Ronald Reagan introduced his infamous Trickle Down theory.  Tax rates for the ultra wealthy went from 70% down to 39% and with capital gains at 15%, what we’re seeing is the upper tier pays less in percentage (~23%) than their hired help does.

Today they are fully trained in the New Gingrich mold of switching the conversation to “entitlements” as the root cause.  The problem here is, social security isn’t an entitlement.  We paid into that program and are owed the money.

No, the problem is that corporations and the wealthy haven’t been paying their fair share.  70% down to 23%.  Do the math.

But they are the job creators comes the rallying cry from the peanut gallery!  Bullshit.  The lessons of the past 4 decades have told a different story.  They haven’t created living wage jobs.  If anything they have outsourced more.

And now with a Republican holding the White House and record deficits, the Tea Party is conspicuously absent from the conversation about debt and deficits.  In fact, they vote in block to expand the very thing they were reportedly enraged about: big government spending.

I can only draw one conclusion from this: Tea Party Republicans are full of shit.

Small farms no more

The WSJ says small family farms may not make it much longer. Despite the republican bailout (twice the size of the Obama bailout that wasn’t necessary in the first place because this is a self inflicted tariff wound), farmers will be lacking a critical piece of their business: markets.

If you’re a small farmer, lose your land and STILL vote republican, my sympathy level is low.