A lot of hot air

It wasn’t even a week ago the bloviator in chief promised to die on the hill of $5B for his border wall or shut down the government. Predictably, that was all bullshit. I feel it’s my responsibility to point this out.

With a ballooning deficit because tax receipts are falling short and the Dow Jones down a full 6% since the tax cut for millionaires was enacted, Trump is feeling the heat of the one and only issue he could stand on slipping away: the economy.

Investor psychology is real and at the moment volitility in securities and rising interest rates are driving psychological sentiment negative. And once negative, it takes quite awhile to turn that bus around. And I didn’t even mention the asinine tarrifs that are killing jobs in the auto and farm industries.

Bring on the recession post haste. We’re overdue, so let it happen on Trump’s watch. Let it happen tomorrow. I’m bearish on 2019 and plan to profit off it by betting against companies with high debt who boosted their stock prices in 2018 with stock buy backs fueled by their exorbitant republican tax cut.

An offer he cannot refuse

Trump is meeting with “Chuck and Nancy” today. The main topic is reportedly to get a deal in the works for funding the border wall. Trump wants $5B unconditionally. Rumor has it that Chuck and Nancy are offering 1.5B in exchange for dealing with the Dreamer’s Act.

Since Trump has zero leverage, I’m thinking Chuck and Nancy should take a page out of The Godfather II when Michael Corleone is “negotiating” with senator Pat Geary over a gaming license in Las Vegas. (Geary wants $250,000 plus a 5% cut from the hotels. The gaming license fee is normally $20,000).

Senator? You can have my offer now if you like. My offer is this: nothing. Not even the fee for the gaming license which I would appreciate if you would put up personally.

Same answer holds true for Kevin McCarthy, Mr. “Benghazi is good for the polls” himself on democrats having restraint on impeachment.

Um, no.

Democrats are 3 weeks away from an impeachment vote. The conversation should go like this:

Mr. President? You can have our answer now if you like. Our offer is this: nothing. Not a red cent for the wall. And we would appreciate your leadership on passing the Dreamers Act by the end of the year.

The Illusion of Prosperity

Life experience tells me that sometimes before change is possible we have to hit rock bottom. Then and only then do we have that aha moment.

This may sound un american but this is the reason I’m rooting for a recession in 2019. As a collective group of voters, democrat, republican and independent, we need to watch trickledown economics fail spectacularly so that no politician in his or her right mind will ever peddle that canard from the podium ever again.

Trumpism should have died with Charlottesville, but apparently there are more racists among us than we realized. Thankfully enough voters were turned off by the party that decided to “look the other way” at the disgraceful treatment of immigrants and people of color that democrats now control the house of representatives which in turn neuters the Trump agenda for however long he remains in office.

With Trump’s presidency literally hanging by a thread, republicans have one and only one issue they can hang their hats on at the moment and that is economic growth. We’ve seen record low unemployment which usually bodes well for the party in power. What people sometimes fail to realize is that it takes considerable time to know whether economic policies enacted by a party are working or not. I could easily argue that the first year economic results of the Trump presidency were carryover from the Obama administration. This is true for any president.

The problem for republicans now is, the trade deficit is at a 10 year high. Republicans run on a platform of deficit hawks but haven’t addressed the national debt (over 20 trillion and rising). The tax cuts that went largely to the wealthy were supposed to be revenue neutral. That turned out to be more than a slight miscalculation. It was a lie. And they knew it. Tariffs are choking the auto industry and farming. Job growth is slowing. Now the stock market is getting nervous and is below the level it held before the tax cut. To top it off, economics runs in cycles and we’re long overdue for an economic downturn.

1988 Vice presidential candidate Lloyd Bentson said it best in his debate with Dan Quayle.

“If you let me write 200 Billion in hot checks every year, I could give you an illusion of prosperity too.”

Take away the “yeah but look at how fabulous your 401k is growing” argument and republicans are left with nothing to stand on as accomplishments. Let me repeat that. Nothing. The scandals outnumber the accomplishments by a triple digit ratio.

George H.W. Bush, (may he rest in peace), got it right in the 1980 republican primaries when he called Reagan’s tax plan “Voodoo economics”

The next recession NEEDS to happen on the republican watch. Let’s get it over with and bury Reaganomics for good. I just hope it’s not as bad as republican strategist Rick Wilson predicted. I don’t have the exact quote but it was something to the effect of “when this is all over it’s going to feel like waking up on a park bench outside Tijuana after a 3 day tequila and stripper club bender.”

Cirque Impressions

Amazon puts on an annual conference in Las Vegas called re:Invent.  But the conference, which boasts 50,000 engineering geek types is a blog post for another day.

One can only take so much techie talk in a week, no matter how much of a geek we are.  In search of some balance for my week, I discovered my calendar was free Wednesday evening so I scanned for some shows on the strip.  People who know me well know that I’m a Beatles fan.  For me it’s a combination of the Beatles music — which is arguably the best catalog of rock music produced in a decade — and Beatlemania, which is best depicted by videos of screaming girls in the Ed Sullivan Theater.

As luck would have it, the Mirage had a nightly Cirque du Soleil called “Beatles Love” which piqued my interest.  The deciding factor was the Mirage was easily walkable – right across the street from where I was staying.  This was my very first Cirque du Soleil experience so I was looking forward to it, though I was wishing Donna could have come with me on this trip.  She would have really loved it.

Sometimes being a Beatles fan comes at a price.  I think I may have found one of a handful of G rated shows in Las Vegas.  Secretly I was hoping for PG-13 at least, I mean c’mon, this is Las Vegas!

The first thing I noticed was the intimate nature of the stage.  I bought a mid-range priced ticket yet I was in the 2nd row, literally 5 feet from the performers at times.  The stage itself is small.  I was wondering how they’d navigate the show around such a small space.

For those who haven’t seen it and are wondering, think Woodstock meets Fantasia meets Grease meets Ringling Brothers meets a Stanley Kubrick film.  The writers intentionally used Beatles lyrics to tell a story – with dance like you’d see in a musical.  Other times with high-flying acrobatics with actors in costume.

The choreography was colorful as you’d expect for a 60’s based show.  Blues, reds, yellows, bright greens everywhere.  What caught me off guard a little bit was how imaginative it all was.  Nothing was too weird costume-wise for “The Beatles — Love” similar to Kubrick’s “A Clockwork Orange”.  Case in point, the segment they put together around Ringo’s “Octopus’s Garden.”  White octopus ghost like figures, brightly lit, hanging from ropes, and then larger ones that turned out to have humans underneath them getting ready to do some acrobatic moves.

Volkswagen had a noticeable role in the show with multiple VW bugs and vans when it came time to reminisce about Woodstock and the hippie movement.

As you probably guessed, there were high trapeze type acts with ropes, platforms, ladders, and long bungee chords.  The athleticism itself is impressive.  These are people with about 3-4% body fat.  Sometimes in the moment there’s so much going on above you with the acrobatics and straight ahead with the dance choreography that you’re not sure what to focus on.

As an infrastructure geek, I’m continually amazed at the stage design and what it must take to move all those parts and pieces around to fit so perfectly for different segments of the show.  Now that would be an interesting engineering project to work on.

The show covered many Beatles favorites so think super imaginative story telling and choreography around Here Comes the Sun, Penny Lane, Twist and Shout, Help!, Blackbird, and Hey Jude.   My favorite though was Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds.  A female trapeze artist in a white dress with shiny lights on it everywhere soared across the landscape to that song, twisting, turning and doing acrobatic moves that catch you off guard.

I’d recommend the show for families or if you’re super Beatles curious like I am.

 

 

Midterm footnote

One of the underreported stories of the week is 15 congressional seats where members had A+ ratings with the NRA were replaced with members with an F rating. I give some credit to Parkland survivor David Hogg for this. Parkland…. Parkland…. Oh right. The was 6 mass shootings ago I almost forgot.

Hogg has been relentless on Twitter with his anti NRA / “young people will win” message, taking on people in positions of power like Dana Loesch and vitriol spewing Fox News anchor Laura Ingraham Angle, whose show is barely afloat since Hogg’s efforts to boycott her advertisers have been largely successful. 24 advertisers have left so far.

Hogg, along with fellow Stoneman Douglas classmates, were organizers of the March for our Lives which drew 1.2 million protesters.

Most conservatives read as far as “gun measures” and make the leap that it’s an article about some left wing loon who wants to confiscate all guns, so let’s be clear about who David Hogg is.

The fact is he’s a strong supporter of the second amendment. His father is a federal agent and carries. His official positions include strong support for the right to bear arms, but with some common sense restrictions. Background checks, banning bump stocks, raising the minimum age to 21, prohibitions on people with mental illness, a criminal history and domestic violence. All very reasonable suggestions, worthy of public discussion but the mear mention of any gun law changes somehow causes the NRA to start the tyranny messaging.

Indeed we did see a spike in the 18-25 voting block. Many of those races changed hands by close margins 51/49. All I can say is, thank you David Hogg.

Thanks for the memories

It’s just a house.  Or is it?

Facing divorce in 2006 I had a tough decision to make.  Should I let the house that I just recently bought go or find a way to hang on?  It didn’t make any sense for one person to live in 3400 square feet.  But I’m stubborn and I just bought the thing and I really liked it, so I found a way to stay in it.  Was it the best financial decision I ever made?  Nope.  Hindsight clearly says I should have severely downsized and bought back in after the market recovered.  But you can’t time the market and kick yourself for that.

Was it one of the best life decisions I’ve ever made?  You bet.

I cannot count the number of social functions we’ve held at this place.  Memories don’t have a price-tag.  I got remarried in this house.  We’ve hosted Christmas Eve, Thanksgiving, birthdays, family reunions, grandkids overnighters, college football / Duck games (some more memorable than others), several concerts with various band configurations I’ve been in, and quite a few friends gatherings just because.  It’s been truly amazing.  With Donna’s vision, we’ve been able to transform this place into the type of place that is perfect for gatherings.  I don’t regret one second or one penny.   Memories.

In my old neighborhood, you kind of sort of knew who your neighbors were but you didn’t socialize with them much.  In this neighborhood we did – in spades.  Social functions are happening all the time and lifelong friendships have been made.  You can’t put a price tag on that either.

There’s been some tough times too.  I had a stroke in the kitchen in 2013 where I laid on the floor wondering if the spinning would ever stop.  I injured my back doing minor chores and spent the better part of 2 months crawling around it.  Donna and I both saw job changes shortly after we were married in 2010.  We got through the Great Recession in this house – together.

While it’s been a fantastic 25 years in Tualatin, 16 of them on Meier Drive, Donna and I feel like it’s time to downsize a little bit and get a place together that we can call our own.  The original reason for moving to Tualatin had to do with School District.  I haven’t had kids in the school district in over 12 years.  I used to be Vice President of Little League baseball and I felt like I knew everyone in town.  Now I head into town and hardly recognize anyone.  The drive to and from work for Donna is a 5 times a week burden.  Honestly, the hardest part about leaving will be seeing a little bit less of our amazing neighbors who we’ve become close friends with these past few years.  But we’re determined to make it only a little bit less!

So we’re both selling our houses and have our sights set on a new place up near Lewis and Clark College where we plan to make more memories with old friends and new.  A lot more memories!  That’s what it’s all about.

We’re crossing our fingers everything holds together so we land in the new place.  In the mean time, I have a house for sale that if you’re interested, give me a jingle and let’s make a deal!

Here’s the listing: https://www.redfin.com/OR/Tualatin/10555-SW-Meier-Dr-97062/home/26700654

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