How’s your 401k doing?

It happened on the Republican watch.  Finally.  The recession I’d been dreaming of.

At last, Trumpy ran into some bad luck.  It was bound to happen.  The Coronavirus is a serious threat to seniors and Trump’s attempt to frame it as a hoax failed miserably.  Witness the stock market decline of 8,000 points in the past week.  Of course, it helps when messaging if the messenger has credibility.  Trump has none.  His staff has to spend the following day of every press conference cleaning up the lies and other misleading statements.

The best part of it all is it is happening on the Republican watch.  The biggest arguments for supporting Trump have all been wiped out in one week.  The how’s your 401k argument – gone.

I’ve said for years the Presidents get too much credit for market conditions when they are good and too much blame when they are bad.  So normally I would defend that argument except for the fact that Trump has been taking credit every point rise in the Dow Industrials since he took office.  Never-mind the fact that the economy that he inherited was riding a 6-year run of nothing but growth.

Every president has to face some adversity at some point.  Some market condition that is out of his/her control.  What we then observe is how well they handle adversity.  GW Bush had 9/11.  He brought the country together at least, including trying very hard to win the support of moderate Muslims.  Obama had the 2008 financial collapse and subsequent housing crash to deal with.  He instituted QE2, bailed out the auto-industry and restored faith to the markets.  It took over a year but he did it.  Hilarious that the Tea Party was wailing about QE2 but unanimously supported Trump’s bailout of the farmers due to his own tariffs.

Trickle-down is what George Herbert Walker Bush said it was back in 1992.  “Voo-doo economics.”

Faced with a pandemic, Trump had two options, both really bad, but one was less bad.  He could have faced it head-on, explained that we’re in a tough situation for a while and deploy the government services to respond in full.  The downside of this is that the markets aren’t going to like  the news of course, but long term they would like that it’s being dealt with and a recovery period is in sight.

The other option he had (and chose), was to try to minimize the pandemic as another form of the flu, nothing to worry about really, and hope the markets don’t notice.  The problem is, he lies so much his credibility was suspect.  The markets were nervous anyway but when the truth came out, boom, -8,000 points in a week.  The markets just voted “no confidence” that he won’t bungle the whole affair by trying to lie his way out of it.

So Trump finally got his batch of adversity in 2020.  The economy was overdue for a recession.  It couldn’t have happened to a more deserving administration and party ..on their watch.

The undecided voter

When the mainstream media pulls together a select panel of undecided voters, I know without a doubt that I’m looking at the dumbest voting block in the country.

I wouldn’t say this of a hardcore Trump supporter, … necessarily.

At least with a full fledged Trump supporter you know what you’re getting. They have been paying attention and have made a choice. A horrible choice, but at least they are cognizant of the world around them and let us know where they stand.

The undecided voter gets no such benefit. If you haven’t figured out where you stand between the choice of Hillary or Trump, then I’m sorry but you are a dumb ass.

It’s like standing there in front of the TV and with a straight face saying gosh, I need to find a job but I can’t decide if I should pursue coal mining or go into medicine.

Republican hypocrisy off the charts

I’m old enough to remember when Republicans were aghast when Bill Clinton met with Loretta Lynch on the tarmac in Phoenix, Az. and chatted for 20 minutes.  And rightfully so, Hillary was under investigation for the now-infamous nothing-burger e-mail scandal.  Given the situation, it was terrible judgement to meet with the active AG when your wife is under investigation.

Now we have William Barr who, if he’s not sleeping at the White House appears to be a de-facto member of the Trump cabinet.  To quote Lev Parnas, “He was on the team” when it came to drumming up opposition research on Joe Biden.   Of course, the Republicans are fine with this instance of abuse of power because well, hypocrisy.

 

War: Mandatory Draft and Pay-go

Conservatives tend to rally around war mongering without requiring the slightest bit of justification.  There were no WMDs after all in Iraq.  Qasam Soleimani was assassinated because as rumor has it, he was planning to plot against us.  No evidence of these assumptions ever seems to be required.  Cost, both human and financial, be damned.

When the Iraq war was waged by George W. Bush in 2003, cable viewers could watch bombs explode on targets on CNN every day.  I think most people thought it was a really cool display of our technology.  Entertainment even.  Lets gather around and watch some more brown people die.   It’s 6,000 miles away and looks like a well designed video game on TV.

This is where the problem lies now.  It’s easy to be entertained by war when it’s other people’s children doing the dying.  It’s also easy to be entertained by war when it seemingly doesn’t cost us anything.   Free entertainment.  And we alway seem to win.  What a cool country we live in.

To the average American, a real test of whether or not it’s cool would be if everyone had an equal chance of participating in the war games.  Hmm, hold on a minute.  I just like to watch.  That’s what I thought.

This is why I’m thinking the only solution that will force people to get real about whether or not they really support a movement towards war, is if we reverted back to the mandator draft.  I believe it would nip this kind of thinking in the bud. Oh it’s my kid who might have to be on the front line?  Wait just a minute now.

Another test would be if we had to use pay-go for the war costs.  If everyone’s tax bill went up $5,000 / year to pay for the ongoing war, can you imagine the push-back?  Well, I think we should do it but I’m not going to be the one paying for it.  Indeed.  You don’t have to worry about that because it’s on the credit card.  You’ll be dead when the bill comes due, but your kids won’t be too happy.

Lloyd Bentsen, in the 1988 Vice Presidential debate said it best.

You know, if you let me write $200 billion worth of hot checks every year, I could give you an illusion of prosperity, too.

 

 

 

 

Some thoughts on homelessness

I was struck by a thread of conversation nextdoor.com titled “Homeless people in LO.”  The author had really good intentions and was asking for compassion and understanding towards the homeless.  Reading the author’s bio I wasn’t sure if the post was a troll or not.  After-all, wouldn’t it be somewhat predictable to expect the people of this relatively affluent burb to vigorously attack behaviors that might attract more homeless people to the confines of Lake Oswego?  What better way to get under their skin than to start a thread on how we can engage in behaviors that would result in more homeless people in the city with its own private lake.

homeless-1

As I read through the comment section I was very pleased to learn that Lake Oswego residents have opinions on both sides of this issue.  It wouldn’t be fair to stereotype an entire community as stodgy old rich people who don’t give a hoot about the poor.  There were some heartless souls chiming in, but just as many people who understood this is a complex issue, thankfully.

Several root causes were asserted in this thread.  Mental illness, drug addiction, the cost of housing, lack of morals.  All factors to be sure.  That’s why it’s a complex issue that can’t be solved by simply saying “Don’t tread on me, move your tent to someone else’s burb!”

I don’t think it’s a surprise to anyone that the homelessness issue is getting worse.  As of 2017 about 2% of Portland’s population was homeless, or about 38,000 people.  It’s real and all it takes is a check on our senses of sight and smell to understand we need to collectively do something.  We aren’t going to wish this problem away.

Everyone wants clean cities that they can be proud of that they can show off to out-of -towners.  I read an article not long ago of a guy who had fond memories of riding the Springwater trail during his time in Portland, but then got married and moved to Bend.  When his kids got to be bike riding age he tried to take the family back to Portland to experience the Springwater trail for themselves and it was quite simply, not a place you would ever want to take your family.

I don’t claim to be a subject matter expert on homelessness, but I’ll share my take on it because I think it’s a perspective worth considering.

My main point is, the problem isn’t going to be resolved for free.  I don’t have the statistics in front of me but I have a sister who worked as a mental health nursing supervisor and I recall her telling me back in the 1980’s about how the drastic funding cuts to mental healthcare were going to result in what we are seeing today.  Often times there simply isn’t any place for the mentally ill to go.

Everyone wants lower taxes including me.  I sometimes wonder what they do with all that money they collect every year off my property taxes.  How the government spends the money they collect is a valid issue, but in my opinion should be treated separately from addressing the crisis of homelessness now.

The problem is we want it both ways.  We want beautiful, clean cities we can be proud of but we don’t want to provide funds to adequately take care of the mentally ill among us.  In retrospect it was very naive to think that we’d be able to cut those funds with no consequences.

The second point I want to make is, this is a problem that belongs in the hands of professionals.  It’s incredibly naive to think the Portland police or you and I can do anything about this issue.  I remember standing at a bus stop on Naito a couple of years ago and witnessed first hand a mentally ill person yielding a sword out in the middle of traffic.  I was concerned for his safety so I called the Police.  I didn’t have high expectations for what could be done, but my suspicions were confirmed when the officer told me “We get 20 calls like this a day.  We can’t commit to coming out to each one, we just don’t have the resources.”  They can’t lock them all up unless they are a threat to others.  Since the guy was just waving his sword around randomly and not at anyone, they couldn’t come.  Okay man, I’ll call ‘ya back when he starts waving it at me.

The good news is this is sort of a self correcting problem.  We already have businesses that are choosing not to locate downtown because of the homeless issue.  They simply don’t want to subject their workers to the ugliness that comes with having to wade through camps of homeless people to get to the food cart to grab a bite.

When the problem gets bad enough and enough businesses leave the city, tents and blue tarp start showing up in Dunthorpe, all of our house values decline and Portland loses its luster as a destination city… in other words, when it starts to cost real money, something will be done.  That’s when the voters will approve a ballot measure that adequately funds the mentally ill.

With the advantages afforded me, I personally was born on at least 2nd base.  I try to remember that because I can easily envision scenarios where most of us are all one or two bad breaks away from setting up camp.

 

 

2019 – No yawning allowed

It’s late December so it must be time for the annual humble-brag.  My followers here at pdx-i.net insisted.  Both of them.

One thing 2019 was not was boring.  It felt full-throttle from start to finish.   We managed several home improvement projects inside and out from a new fence, 2 sheds, painted almost every room inside, painted the exterior, several significant landscaping changes, and a garage remodel.  So many contractors were in and out it felt like visiting Jackie and Rich’s house.   What were we thinking?  I think it was “let’s get this over with so we can enjoy the place.”  Thankfully things have settled down in large part because we blew through the budget and literally have just enough money left over to buy a couple of Americanos.

May and June were also not boring.  We welcomed Emilia Susanne Toner (Millie) and Gwendolyn Lucille Toner (Gwennie) into the world about 6 weeks apart.  I’m at a loss for words for how grateful we are that we added 2 new grandchildren who are healthy, happy and well cared for.  The pictures tell the story.   Their cousins Kaden and Karter keep the family entertained with their observations about school, sports, and life in general.  High marks for being very nice young gentleman.

August was not boring.  Donna turned 60 and we threw a backyard party for friends, family, and neighbors.  Seymour and Smith brought the good times along with the classic rock.  We got several compliments about how awesome the music was, but the main thing was the good vibe and Donna got to share her special day with many of you.

Also in August Donna and I met up with my cousin Jim in San Francisco to see the Giants and toured the city over a long weekend.  Then off on a train ride to Seattle to see the Mariners as well as attend the annual family reunion at Lake Margaret.

Sadly, the cycle of life took our beloved Verda Ann Toner from us this year.  She was a special lady and an extremely talented bridge player.  We miss you, Verda.

In spite of some challenging kidney stone episodes in the Spring, Donna continues to not have a middle gear.  It’s either full bore or plop.  No rest for the weary.  She’s still in the heat of the battle at Cambia, and rolls up her sleeves and kicks butt inside and out when she gets home.  She’s loving the new yard.  I’m not sure the neighbors are so sure because of all the shrubs that got taken out and my constant trailer loads to S&H logging, but she’s got the vision and a plan.  Give it 3 years, it will be stunning.  Now that we have our arms around the situation a little better with the house and yard, I fully expect some serious activity in the watercolor area plus her metal shop downstairs.

I managed to remain employed throughout the year, but I switched jobs twice.  At the tail end of my career, I’ve come to the realization that I don’t like to be bossed around.  It’s my new requirement.  Don’t boss me around and we’ll be fine.   I’m currently contracting with Venmo based out of San Francisco, but most of my peers are in New York City.  They are all very young and super smart and I’m, …  a contractor.

When I’m not working I try to sneak in guitar lessons, record music and play fantasy baseball.  With some success the past couple of years I might humble-brag.  Can you say back-to-back championships for the Cogswell Cogs?

Now and again I drop new tunes on my youtube channel.  I’m not exactly sure why.  I think I have the same two followers there.

Pickles loves her back yard and the critters out there.  She likes to pick them up and give them a fling.  She’s slowing down a bit which is good because I don’t think I could find her if she wandered off into the woods.

Donna and I are counting down to retirement, currently shooting for May of 2021.  We could retire now if we wanted to but we’d have to live in the car and Donna doesn’t want to.  We love the new (old) home, really enjoy living by the college and frequently take in activities over there.

We are both doing less Facebook and more Twitter.  We’re not sure why because it raises our blood pressure.

Another thing that raises my blood pressure (but in a good way) is the Oregon Ducks.  Bring on Wisconson.  Why, we should be able to beat them.  They don’t even know how to vote!

We hope this missive finds you in good health and surrounded by people that love you.